Beakinoftruth: foreclosure sales

Obviously for REO there will be two peaks. The first was in late 2008 and largely private-label securities and subprime, and the 2nd will probably be in 2011 and be heavily GSE REOs.

The height of the 2nd peak depends on the number of foreclosures, and the how quickly the lenders can sell the REOs. The foreclosure-gate related moratoriums have slowed the foreclosure process, but foreclosures will probably pick up again in early 2011. My guess is the 2nd peak will happen in 2011 and be close to the same height as in 2008.

One of the key issues is the number of delinquent loans (and loans in the foreclosure process). I use the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) quarterly data and LPS Applied Analytics monthly data to track delinquencies.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph based on the MBA quarterly data shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. The MBA reported that 13.52 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2010 (seasonally adjusted). This was down from 14.42 percent in Q2 2010.

Most of the decline in the overall delinquency rate was in the seriously delinquent categories (90+ days or in foreclosure process). Part of the reason is lenders were being more aggressive in foreclosing in Q3 (before the foreclosure pause) - hence the surge in REO inventory in the first graphs! Some of the decline was probably related to modifications too.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages through November.

The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 9.02% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.29% in October), and another 4.08% are in the foreclosure process (up from 3.92% in October) for a total of 13.10%.

With falling house prices, the delinquency rate could start rising again since more homeowners will have negative equity. However just because a homeowner has negative equity doesn't mean they will default. It usually takes another factor such as loss of employment, divorce, or a medical emergency for the homeowner to default.

On the other hand, an improving labor market will help push down the delinquency rate. My guess is the overall delinquency rate has peaked, although I expect the delinquency rate to stay elevated for some time.

Ten Questions:

• Question #1 for 2011: House Prices

• Question #2 for 2011: Residential Investment

• Question #3 for 2011: Delinquencies and Distressed house sales

• Question #4 for 2011: U.S. Economic Growth

• Question #5 for 2011: Employment

• Question #6 for 2011: Unemployment Rate

• Question #7 for 2011: State and Local Governments

• Question #8 for 2011: Europe and the Euro

• Question #9 for 2011: Inflation

• Question #10 for 2011: Monetary Policy

An international sales trailer used at last November's AFM for Darren Bousman's forthcoming remake of Mother's Day has leaked online, and if you're curious you can now get your first glimpse of footage from the film.

Be warned though ... this is a very temp trailer with a very temp music mix and in our opinion does not do the completed film the slightest bit of justice. Check it out below courtesy of Bloody Disgusting, but honestly? If we were you we'd wait for the real thing.

Mother's Day will be in theatres on April 1st.

Synopsis

After a bank robbery gone wrong, three brothers head for home, hoping their MOTHER (Rebecca De Mornay) can provide them with a getaway. The youngest brother, JOHNNY (Matt O'Leary), has been shot, and their back-stabbing former partner has gotten away with all the cash.

But when the brothers get home, they find that all their stuff is gone and Mother is nowhere to be found: She lost the house months ago in a foreclosure. The new owners, BETH and DANIEL SOHAPI (Jaime King and Frank Grillo), and their guests, gathered for an ill-timed birthday party, become the brothers' unwitting hostages.

Not long after, Mother arrives, along with the boys' sister LYDIA (Deborah Ann Woll), and it soon becomes clear that Mother will do absolutely anything to protect her children. In one terrifying evening she brilliantly takes control of the situation and masterminds her sons' escape from the law.

Sides will be taken, secrets revealed, and sins punished as the hostages struggle to make it through the night alive.

Mother's Day - Early Sales Trailer
Uploaded by dreadcentral. - Classic TV and last night's shows, online.

- Uncle Creepy

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Submitted by Uncle Creepy on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 11:03pm.

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Monday, January 24, 2011

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