Thursday, December 30, 2010

Making Money Without

No summary of 2010, visual or otherwise, would be complete without an extensive overview of what pundits call Monetary Stimulus, quantitative easing or Large Scale Asset Purchases, and the peasantry calls, just as correctly (with a few footnotes), the printing of money. If there are two words that define what we had an absence and an abundance of in the past year, those would be jobs, and money. As some of the key jobs-related charts were presented yesterday, below, once again courtesy of BusinessWeek, are the main charts that among other things demonstrate the various currency manipulation playbooks, the price of gas in bacon and other products, the annotated strength of the dollar through time, and what is actually printed when the Fed does print money.

The first chart shows the progression of dollar strength (and weakness) with an annotation for contemporaneous global events. What is ironic is that while everyone realizes the world is still in a very week position, the core debate over who is weaker - Europe or the US, is sure to provide many hours of entertainment in 2011. And as a bonus, the man whose policies, together with those of Bernanke, are instrumental in just how weak the dollar gets, is presented in his key natural states: from lying just every so slightly, to lying a lot, to lying profusely to save his life, to lying at such a rate, it would make those whose pants are burning, blush with envy. And now you will know how to distinguish the four... 

The next chart deals with the actual money printing, but not in an deeply philosophical manner, one in which hours of debate are wasted over whether trillions in excess reserves are actually printed money (even though the last time someone acquired USTs, MBS, and soon Munis and ETFs, with pixie dust, the legal consequences were not all that palatable). Of the just over $300 billion in actual currency printed in 2010, the vast majority was in $100 bills, next up was $20s, followed by $5s, $10s, and lastly, singles. Not a single $50 bill was printed. Also noted: the amount of cash in corporate America. Of particular interest: GM has more than half of its market value, or $27.5 billion sitting in cash. Lastly, and this not come as a surprise to many, the money multiplier: the money supply divided by the monetary base, is at near record lows, courtesy of the $1 trillion in excess reserves.

Another popular meme in 2010 was pricing X in Y, most often the stock market in gold, in which basis it is still down for the year, as gold (not to mention silver), despite the short memory of many, is by and far the best performing asset class of 2010. Those who followed our advice in early 2010 to avoid stocks and to invest in gold, are ahead of most. The chart below takes a comic approach to this relative performance, showing how much the price of gas changed when priced in other "currencies."

Last, and probably most interesting, is the graphic presentation of the currency manipulator playbook: in a world in which Ben Bernanke knows very well he has little competition when it comes to doing as he chooses with the world's reserve currency (for now), other sovereigns are forced to come up with their unique responses. The playbook below shows all the various defensive tactics adopted so far. Luckily, few offensive plays have been established to date. We doubt that will be the status quo for a long time.

And as John Taylor and many others have pointed out, now that the fiscal "stimulus" of the payroll tax has been exhausted in a few short weeks courtesy of the jump in crude oil, and any further fiscal intervention not likely to occur unless Congress wants another incumbent bloodbath next time around, as Americans are tired of subsidizing banker lifestyles, expect to see many additions to the FX manipulation playbook, as the year progresses and monetary intervention continues to be the only direct way of making sure every new banker bonus year is a record one is via the Fed and its ongoing dollar printing-cum-debasement. That said, should the bankrupt European house of cards continue to wave a white flag of surrender every 3 months, the race to the bottom may not have a clear winner well after 2011 is also history.

All charts courtesy of BusinessWeek



Show me a modern political candidate who doesn’t understand television, and I’ll show you a loser.

When TV became the dominant medium for Americans to consume news and entertainment, political candidates could no longer be successful without looking polished in televised debates, appearing on talk shows and spending big on commercials.

Like the television boom of the 1960s, we are standing on the precipice of a big shift in how public figures are perceived and how campaigns are conducted. Our frontier is social media, and its impact on mainstream political culture is coming on fast.

While my colleagues have been making their predictions about what’s on the tech and social media horizon in 2011, there will be no major U.S. elections next year. Here, we’ll be postulating about social media’s impact on the more long-term future of American civics.

1. There Will Be a Tipping Point

While campaigning and marketing share many similarities, the differences mean everything when you’re talking about democracy’s big picture. Brands can sell by hitting a tech savvy demographic of influencers. Elections involve everyone, whether they’re online or not.

If a large bloc of your constituency is made up of 65+ year-old retirees, chances are a Facebookclass="blippr-nobr">Facebook strategy won’t be time well spent. Despite the enthusiasm of the tech crowd and blogosphere, Twitterclass="blippr-nobr">Twitter is exceedingly far from the mainstream, with only 6% of Americans using the service. And while the world consumes YouTubeclass="blippr-nobr">YouTube videos at a mind-bending rate, viral success is still transient and elusive.

While these tools have certainly proven to be effective in rallying support and contributions, we don’t yet live in a world where social media can make or break a political candidate by itself.

That will change, perhaps even by the next major election cycle.

The future of the social media politician is not about wild speculation and technological uncertainties. It has everything to do with when and how deeply social media can be absorbed into mainstream culture. We are on track for a tipping point — a JFK/Nixon TV debate moment — when everyone on the political scene will acknowledge that we can never go back to campaigns without social.

2. New Media Strategists Will Just Be Strategists

I’ve had the opportunity to talk with the new media strategists for a number of senators, congresspeople and political causes. Despite their differences, they all agree that their own jobs will soon be folded into the larger campaign strategy. As many have already foreseen, social media will not require experts for much longer. As we head toward true mainstream adoption, social will be a default and well-understood tool in the belt of any public-facing professional.

We’ve already seen this happening in the private sector with marketing and PR professionals. As many corporate entities lumber to catch up with those on the cutting edge, so too will government officials and the campaigners who seek their offices.

3. We’ll See the Devaluation of Old Media in Politics/>

Print and radio ads are not as valuable as TV. TV will no longer be as valuable as interactive media. For politics, this is especially so, as the arena (at its best, anyway) warrants engagement and discussion.

As media appetites shift, this is an inevitability. In the U.S., we’re already seeing web use catch up with television in terms of weekly hours spent. Political money will simply go where the eyeballs are, and we’re likely to see a big payoff on social creativity when it comes to future campaigns.

4. Whistle Blowing Gets More Efficient, But That’s It

The WikiLeaksclass="blippr-nobr">Wikileaks saga has ignited plenty of discussion about journalism and whistle blowing in the Internet age. But at the end of the day, the mechanics of an information leak are about the same as they’ve always been: Someone from within an organization leaks damaging information, and the media (in whatever form) disseminates it to the public. Generally speaking, WikiLeaks has only acted as a “middle man” for raw information. It’s journalists who are making sense of it and transmitting it to the public with context.

The web only speeds up this process through digitization and universal access. Governments and politicians will feel the impact of leaks sooner, but it’s unlikely the methods of protecting sensitive information will be much changed.

Your Thoughts?

What do you think will be social media’s biggest impact on the political process? How long until we see a winning campaign strategy that is purely social? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

More Political Resources from Mashable

- How WikiLeaks Became the Story of the Year in 2010 [VIDEO]/> - The Future of Social Media and Politics/> - How Political Campaigns Are Using Social Media for Real Results/> - How the “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear” Nailed Social Media/> - 17 Web Resources to Help You Decide on Election Day

For more Social Media coverage:

    class="f-el">class="cov-twit">Follow Mashable Social Mediaclass="s-el">class="cov-rss">Subscribe to the Social Media channelclass="f-el">class="cov-fb">Become a Fan on Facebookclass="s-el">class="cov-apple">Download our free apps for Android, iPhone and iPad

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